Research Projects

Summary
CRUISSE is one of two networks funded by RCUK Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU). The goal of the CRUISSE network is to develop and build widespread linkages between disciplines related to decision-making under uncertainty to lay the groundwork to form a potential RCUK Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) Research and Evidence Hub (the ‘Hub’) whose function will be to co-ordinate expertise and to offer and further develop tools to facilitate resilient and effective decision-making across a full range of real world uncertainty and practice contexts. The value of such a hub will be tested through feasibility projects and interaction with practitioners in government, industry and civil society. It aims to meet the need to collate and publish relevant materials and manuals via a website and have the capacity to respond to immediate, intermediate and long term consultation, research and training requirements. CRUISSE will begin by establishing a highly multidisciplinary network of academics and professionals who will work upwards from real world practice to develop and test the feasibility of two DMUU dynamically evolving tool sets: a Triage procedure and a Code of Practice.
For more information visit the CRUISSE website.

Funded by
RCUK ‘Decision-making Under Uncertainty’ Network call

Principal Investigator
Professor David Tuckett (UCL)

Co-Investigator
Professor Leonard Smith (LSE)

Grant reference
EP/P016847/1

Grant value (to LSE)
£127,561

Project duration
January 2017 – July 2019

Events:
2nd CRUISSE Network Conference, 7 & 8 November 2018

1st CRUISSE Network Conference, 21 & 22 September 2017 – See Programme

Partners include the Bank of England, the Financial Conduct Authority, START Network, National Health England, the Cabinet Office, BP, Lloyd’s of London, DSTL, Natural England and the National Flood Forum.

Related Network: M2D – Models to Decisions

The CRUISSE Network is co-funded by three UK research councils: ESRC, NERC and EPSRC

Summary
The project aims to create advances in relation to both volume litigation and to high value complex claims. This will include exploring AI and statistical predictive models for valuing disputes and predicting outcomes, predicting cost overruns and case length and managing litigation at a portfolio level.

Funded by
Berrymans Lace Mawer LLP (BLM)
LSE KEI fund

Principal Investigator
Professor Henry Wynn

Project duration
1 July 2018 – 30 June 2020

The LSE Team
Professor Henry Wynn
Professor Pauline Barrieu
Professor Milan Vojnović
Dr Wen Zhang

Read articles about the project
BLM partners with LSE on AI project‘ by Mark Dugdale, Claims Media, 16 February 2018

Insurance firm signs up academics to predict case outcomes‘ by Michael Cross, The Law Society Gazette, 13 February 2018

Leading law firm joins forces with LSE professors to find ways to predict litigation‘ by Nick Hilborne, Legal Futures, 13 February 2018

Summary

This multi-partner project, led by Professor Antonello Provenzale at CNR, Italy, aims to improve terrestrial and marine ecosystem benefits in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures. ECOPOTENTIAL will create a new unified framework for ecosystem studies and management of protected areas. The project will make best use of Earth Observation (EO) and monitoring data, and new modelling approaches will be developed able to include information from EO data; ecosystem services in current and future conditions will be assessed, and the requirements of future protected areas will be defined.

Reindeer population modelling
As part of the Horizon 2020 Ecopotential project and in collaboration with the University of Bergen and the National Research Council of Italy, CATS is working on modelling the wild reindeer population in Hardangervidda National Park in Central Norway. The research involves identifying the effect of hunting and weather conditions on the population with a view to understanding how the size of the population might be affected by climate change.

For more information visit the EcoPotential website: http://www.ecopotential-project.eu/

Publications
Bargmann, T., Wheatcroft, E., Imperio, S. and Vetaas, O.R. (2019) Effects of weather and hunting on wild reindeer population dynamics in Hardangervidda National Park. Population Ecology. 2019; 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390X.12030.

Funded by
EU H2020

Lead Research Organisation
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche

Principal Investigator at LSE
Professor Leonard Smith

Grant reference
641762

Grant value (to LSE)
£180,994

Project duration
June 2015 – October 2019

Summary
As part of this fellowship Dr Erica Thompson will be working with the Start Network, a group of charities working on rapid response to humanitarian emergencies. She will assist the Start Network in their efforts to improve their use of weather forecast information in order to anticipate crises before they occur, so that resources can be allocated in advance, potentially saving both costs and lives.

Funded by
NERC (Innovation Placement)

Principal Investigator
Dr Erica Thompson

Grant reference
NE/R006873/1

Project duration
1 November 2017 – 30 June 2020

Getting ahead of deadly heat
Blog by Sarah Klassen, 5 June 2018
Dr Erica Thompson works with Start Network to forecast and mitigate a heatwave in Pakistan

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Summary
Humanitarian agencies are able to use weather (and other) forecasts to act in anticipation of humanitarian crises. For example, when a heatwave or hurricane is forecast, supplies can be moved into position early and emergency supplies positioned or pre-distributed. This reduces the overall impact and the cost of responding to the disaster. However, financing in advance of a disaster requires a high level of confidence in the forecast, to avoid the possibility of misallocated or wasted resources. Many forecasts are currently available but not all are accompanied by an assessment of the forecast quality. For example, it may be that the forecast is over-confident, predicting an event more times than it is actually observed, or it could be under confident, failing to predict events which do then occur. The project aims to develop and demonstrate a general method of measuring and displaying the information content of forecasts, using a novel idea which is based on existing research and freely available data. This will allow humanitarian agencies to act confidently in anticipation of humanitarian crises when there is sufficient information in the forecast, and to implement forecast-based financing schemes such as insurance or anticipatory funding allocation only when there is known to be confidence that the scheme will be effective.

Funded by
NERC (Building Resilience with financial instruments call)

Grant reference
NE/R01423X/1

Principal investigator
Professor Leonard Smith

Researcher Co-Investigator
Dr Erica Thompson

Researcher
Dr Liz Stephens

Project duration
1 January 2018 – 31 December 2020

Project Partners:
Botswana Institute for Technology
Lloyd’s of London
Start Network

Getting ahead of deadly heat
Blog by Sarah Klassen, 5 June 2018
Dr Erica Thompson works with Start Network to forecast and mitigate a heatwave in Pakistan

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