Judd, K., Smith, L.A. and Weisheimer, A. (2007) ‘How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation‘, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 133 626: 1309-1325. DOI: 10.1002/qj.000. Abstract.
Stainforth, D.A., Allen, M.R., Tredger, E.R. and Smith, L.A. 2007 ‘Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions‘, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161. DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2074. Abstract.
Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) ‘Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance of being proper‘, Weather and Forecasting, 22 2: 382-388. DOI: 10.1175/WAF966.1. Abstract.
Bröcker, J. and Smith, L.A. (2007) ‘Increasing the reliability of reliability diagrams‘, Weather and Forecasting, 22 3: 651-661. DOI: 10.1175/WAF993.1. Abstract.
Guerrero, A. and Smith, L.A. 2005 ‘A maximum likelihood estimator for long-range persistence‘, Phys. Lett. A, 355 (2-4): 619-632. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.03.002. Abstract.
Roulston, M.S., Ellepola, J. and Smith, L.A. 2005 ‘Forecasting wave height probabilities with numerical weather prediction models‘, Ocean Engineering, 32 (14-15): 1841-1863. DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2004.11.012. Abstract.
Weisheimer, A., Smith, L.A., and Judd, K. (2005) ‘A new view of forecast skill: bounding boxes from the DEMETER Ensemble Seasonal Forecasts‘, Tellus, 57 3: 265-279 MAY. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00106.x. Abstract.
Stainforth, D.A., Aina, T., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Frame, D.J., Kettleborough, J.A., Knight, S., Martin, A., Murphy, J., Piani, C., Sexton, D., Smith, L., Spicer, R.A., Thorpe, A.J., Webb, M.J., Allen, M.R. (2005) ‘Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases‘, Nature, 433 7024: 403-406. DOI: 10.1038/nature03301. Abstract.
Kilminster, D., Clarke, L., Bröcker, J., Roulston, M., Ziemann, C. and Smith, L.A. (2004) From MOS to eMOS: Generalising Model Output Statistics For Full Ensemble Forecasts. THORPEX Int. Sci. Symp., Montreal. Abstract.
Golobic, I., Pavlovic, E., von Hardenberg, J., Berry, M., Nelson, R.A., Kenning, D.B.R., and Smith, L.A. 2004 ‘Comparison of a mechanistic model for nucleate boiling with experimental spatio-temporal data‘, Trans IChemE, Part A, Feb 2004, Chemical Engineering Research and Design, 82 (A), 1-10. DOI: 10.1205/026387604323050146. Abstract.
