Professor Leonard Smith gave a seminar on ‘Model error, real world risk: probabilistic pathways but probably not probabilities’. It was part of a seminar series on ‘Risk in the 21st Century’, Oxford University. Abstract.
Leonard Smith presented a poster entitled ‘On the impact of NUMB weather on science, society and operational forecasting centres’, at the 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 25-29 June 2007, Park City, Utah. Poster abstract.
CATS members gave a number of presentations at the EGU General Assembly 2007, Vienna. CATS at EGU 2007. Poster.
Leonard Smith presented a talk entitled ‘Valued foresight or useless arithmetic: extrapolation models in the service of decision support and policy’ at the MSRI Symposium on Climate Change: from global models to local action, 12-13 April 2007, Berkeley, USA. Talk slides.
Leonard Smith with Jochen Broecker and Hailiang Du gave two presentations: ‘Ensemble forecasts: An introduction to their statistics, value and application’, Talk slides, and ‘Forecasting with the NAG Board: results and winners’, Talk slides, at the ECMWF 3rd International Verification Methods Workshop, 29 January – 2 February 2007, Reading, UK, sponsored by WMO/WCRP/WWRP/COST.
Leonard Smith led a session on ‘Bayesian physics and decision support in climate-like modelling’, SAMSI. Programme and abstract.
Leonard Smith and CATS Visiting Research Fellows, Professor Nigel Harvey and Dr David Stainforth, participated as members of a roundtable discussion at the WMO Climate Risk Conference, entitled ‘Living with Climate Variability and Change’, Espoo, Finland. For further information see Media. Read the Final Report.
Leonard Smith contributed to the workshop: ‘Applying complex modelling techniques to sustainability challenges’, at the European Commission in Brussels. Summary notes.
Leonard Smith gave a talk on ‘Insights from a century of forecast errors: the evolving role of nonlinearity in operational forecast systems’, at the ’20 years of Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosciences’ Conference, 11-16 June 2006, Rhodes, Greece. Abstract. CATS Visiting Research Fellow, Kevin Judd, gave a talk on ‘Weather forecasting: it’s about dynamics, it’s not about statistics’.
Members of CATS presented a day of seminars and a roundtable discussion at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), focussing on insights gained from experiences with ECMWF forecasts. Programme.
